Just two months in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
