Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
